Beginning in July 2025, Russian officials openly spoke about a project in 2026 to create a new long-haul, wide-body aircraft. The technical configuration and requirements are currently being defined in the stage that precedes the project’s official commencement. The budget has also been allocated. It is evident that, based on the capabilities of Russia’s aircraft and engine industries up to 2030, this aircraft will likely be powered by the new, huge PD-35 engines, which are currently under development.
The PD-8 and PD-14 are the only new Russian engines in the PD series that are not suitable for aircraft that require an extended range and a high payload capacity. Therefore, what type of aircraft could Russia’s civil aviation potentially acquire based on these assumptions? The discussion of the potential successor to the Il-96, and in fact, the future Russian wide-body, long-haul aircraft, should commence with an understanding of the missions that such an aircraft would be designed to fulfill. The Il-96 is not used for regular civil passenger service and is not operated on domestic flights in Russia.
At the same time, the government is moving away from a liberal-market approach to the civil aviation sector. The domestic segment of large and long-haul aircraft has the potential to be revitalized with state support, and this is not limited to domestic routes. Russia will eventually be required to operate on a global scale, including flights to Latin America, South America, the Middle East, India, Southeast Asia, and other regions.
The developing system of macro-regions (“multipolar world”) and BRICS, in particular, offers opportunities to access new markets where demand exceeds the capacity of domestic and charter flights. The process is complex, but it’s time to join in and compete with Boeing and Airbus. At present, Russia is a non-player in this field. This is partially because the production of only 1 to 2 Il-96 aircraft per year in such small quantities is of no interest to anyone, and Russia lacks its own technical support centers and depots. Nevertheless, strategic thinking mandates that it must strive for the future.
Particularly because UAC (United Aircraft Corporation) and UEC (United Engine Corporation) have made significant progress under sanctions since 2022.
Consequently, Russia will eventually acquire the larger aircraft. Russia’s PD-35 engine is currently under development. It is a highly intriguing engine, as Russia has never built an engine of this magnitude, not even in the Soviet Union. Russians frequently accomplish favorable outcomes when they are assigned the responsibility of developing new ideas. This is indeed the case, and early testing under the PD-35 program indicates that the country is on the correct track. UEC has committed to the development of “a family of fifth-generation turbofan engines with thrust spanning from 24 to 38 tons for next-generation twin-engine wide-body passenger and cargo aircraft” based on the PD-35, which is currently under development. Furthermore, it is feasible that a PD-24 may be introduced; however, such an announcement is at least five years away, as indicated by the performance of current engines.
The PD-35 boasts impressive technical specifications, including a fan diameter of 3 meters, a takeoff thrust of 35,000 kg, a pressure ratio of 53, a bypass ratio of 11.0, a fuel efficiency that is 2–5% higher than that of Western counterparts, and noise levels that are 17–20% lower than current norms. Additionally, NOx emissions are reduced by 50–60%. No Western engine matches exactly the PD-35’s combination of thrust and specs, but the Trent XWB-97 and the lower-thrust variants of the GE9X family are closest in scale and technology.
The prevailing opinion is that Russia will install two of the PD-35 engines on the Il-96 in place of four PS-90 engines once the PD-35 is completed. Nevertheless, the Il-96 would necessitate a nearly complete redesign, modifications, and testing to be converted in this manner. It is more straightforward to design a new aircraft that is specifically designed for the new engine. It appears that Russia intends to implement this strategy beginning in 2026.
But a newer design based on the Il-96 with two engines cannot be ruled out. The MC-21 can also be scaled up, as there were plans for it before the current model was chosen. Russia is currently in pursuit of “partners” for this initiative. An effort to jointly develop the largest passenger aircraft segment with China was already underway: the CR929 project. In the end, the project evolved into the C929, which was entirely Chinese but featured Western engines and control systems. In the aerospace industry, China remains unable to function without Western supplies, despite its vast manufacturing capabilities. The ARJ21 and the C919, both of which were developed in the 21st century, are powered by Western engines from the United States and France. The CR929 project anticipated that Russian PD-35 engines could partially replace Western suppliers, but only to a limited extent.
The Chinese perceived a version of the aircraft with Russian engines as one of two parallel options, the other being a version with British Rolls-Royce engines. China replaced all Russian components with Western ones when the two sides amicably “parted ways” in 2023. Parallel to this, the Russian team acquired expertise in the development of an entirely new aircraft, which encompassed the development of a composite wing. This will also be beneficial for the new aircraft. In terms of collaboration, it may be better to proceed independently at this time.
Ultimately, Russia’s ability to maintain its position as a leader in the industry is facilitated by its own aviation school and resources. Regarding the future aircraft of this class, which are being developed entirely domestically, it is important to mention that Russia has established technological independence in aviation and engine manufacturing as a top priority.
Despite numerous “sanctions,” as of 2022, several fully domestic civil aircraft are in varying stages of readiness/testing: the Superjet 100, MC-21, Il-114-300, LMS-901 “Baikal,” TVRS-44 “Ladoga,” the modernized Tu-214, and the “replacement for the Il-96” in the form of the prospective aircraft mentioned above. Additionally, a new supersonic passenger aircraft is currently being developed. This represents an enormous workload. The aviation industry has secured full bookings for the next decade, which is undoubtedly encouraging.
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