The certification trials for the MC-21 have commenced, and Russia has not disclosed any information regarding the Tu-214 in the past two months. Since 2022, it has been challenging to establish its production at the Kazan Aviation Plant. Some even assert that the Tupolev aircraft is obsolete, arguing that the MC-21 is nearly ready for serial production while the Tu-214 is still in the process of being developed. Nevertheless, the “two hundred fourteenth” has been repeatedly referred to as a highly promising aircraft, and the MC-21 is merely its fortunate competitor, as has been the case since 2022.
The Tu-214 and MC-21 are distinct aircraft from different eras. At the most fundamental level, consider a vehicle from the 1980s and its modern cousin in the same category. The Tu-214 is a modification of the Soviet Tu-204, which was developed in the 1980s. Conversely, the MC-21 emerged from a different era (2010s–2020s) and represents a brand-new aircraft. Therefore, their fuel efficiency and other parameters are different. Despite their visual similarities, the engines (PS-90A vs. PD-14) and construction (e.g., the composite wing of the MC-21) are not the same. There is a suggestion that the Tu-214 is an inferior aircraft. The Special Flight Detachment “Russia,” which transports the country’s top officials, routinely uses this type of aircraft, which serves as a clear indication of its reliability and quality.
The MC-21 is a new aircraft type that has been specifically designed to accommodate the changes in commercial aviation requirements from the 1990s to the 2010s. As a result, the MC-21 is expected to become a mass-produced aircraft. Currently, the Irkutsk facility has the capacity to produce a significant number of MC-21s. It is anticipated that the full-scale production of the MC-21 will start in 2027. The aircraft will be manufactured for the next 30 years.
What is the status of the Tu-214? What was the reason for the significant sum of financing that was allocated to the Kazan Aviation Plant between 2022 and 2024? The slow progress of the Tu-214 production program raises questions, especially since the aircraft was “almost complete” and mass production was expected to begin in Kazan by 2024–2025. The government’s 2022 Kazan Tu-214 initiative posed a significant risk. Initially, the facility was in a certain status; it had been producing only one-off units, not serial production, for nearly a decade. Second, the Kazan plant was fully occupied with important military contracts aimed at reviving Tu-160 production, developing PAK DA, and modernizing Tu-22M3. Consequently, both production capacities and personnel were limited. The third issue is the unexpected presence of imported components in the “entirely Russian” Tu-214. Domestic alternatives not only replaced these, but Russian factories also certified and mass-produced them.
However, the Russian officials made loud promises in 2022–2023 that Kazan would soon be rolling out aircraft en masse. It is a realistic 3–5 year effort to organize serial production of an updated aircraft that had previously been built at a rate of one per year, as all technical initiatives require time. It may have been feasible to adhere to the three-year timeline, but Kazan’s production capabilities were not completely prepared. New equipment has been acquired, a new facility has been constructed, and a training infrastructure has been established.
The Tu-214 initiative started in Kazan in mid-2022. The first completed aircraft took to the skies in December 2024. It is expected that two serial aircraft will be delivered to clients in 2025. It is anticipated that the production volumes will increase in 2026–2027. Subsequently, in 2028, it is planned to increase full-scale serial production.
Therefore, it will require 5–6 years to overcome all obstacles and achieve the desired output levels. That is a realistic but constrained schedule for the aviation sector. Prior to 2022, the Sukhoi Superjet, which was manufactured in Komsomolsk-on-Amur, was the only commercial aircraft in serial production in Russia.
Now, what is the future of the Tu-214? The Tu-214 is a multifunctional platform. The military has several reconnaissance aircraft that are based on it. Additionally, the presidential flight detachment and security agencies frequently acquire individual Tu-214s. Although these are not mass orders, they are consistent. Commercial clientele presents a more complicated scenario. Last year, Aeroflot created controversy by selecting only the MC-21, effectively eliminating the Tu-214 from future regular passenger service. However, Aeroflot is not the only client. In a few years, Russian airlines will commence the process of seeking replacements for their Boeings and Airbuses. And the sanctions are not likely to disappear anytime soon. Therefore, there will be an adequate number of orders for both the MC-21 and the Tu-214. The Tu-214’s technological simplicity allows for its successful export to favorable countries with minor modifications.
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