The civilian aircraft production program might see cuts by 2025. Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov said it would be changed by the end of the year; Rostec CEO Sergey Chemezov said Russia just needs to manufacture 200 aircraft during this period.
“I believe that by 2030, at least around 200 aircraft need to be produced to replace the aging foreign airliners currently operated by airlines. Perhaps more will be required,” Chemezov told RIA Novosti.
Rostec is the largest company in Russia, manufacturing several high-tech goods, including civilian and military aviation.
Basic calculations show that, given 1,750 days remaining until December 31, 2029, the Russian aviation sector would have to build one aircraft every 8.75 days to reach Chemezov’s aim. As Chemezov pointed out, if more aircraft are required, the production rate would have to rise even more.
Not even before sanctions were applied had the Russian aviation sector attained such a rate. Russia built 11 aircraft in 2019, reports TASS, citing the Ministry of Industry and Trade; in 2020—12; in 2021—13, including one prototype MC-21.
Russia should build 994 aircraft by 2030, according to the present Comprehensive Program for the Development of the Air Transport Industry until 2030, which is 794 more than Chemezov’s estimate.
The government’s effort is to set industrial targets for aircraft manufacturing. The program is in place, and experts are working on upgrades and changes.
The project received its first approval on June 27, 2022, with the original plan to manufacture 1,036 aircraft by 2030. However, as time progressed, the number of aircraft decreased, leading to a delay in the commencement of manufacturing for ‘certain types,’ particularly the Tu-214.
First Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov told Interfax that a new version of the program would be launched by the end of the year when two new Russian passenger aircraft—the SSJ-NEW, a domestically produced version of the Superjet, and the MC-21—receive certification. Chemezov’s comment does not inevitably mean that the program will be further cut.
Following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, sanctions placed by Western nations have stopped the serial production of passenger aircraft in Russia.
Despite having manufactured only seven SuperJet 100 aircraft from pre-war stocks of foreign components, the Russian aviation sector has failed to establish large aircraft manufacturing since then.
Originally approved with foreign-made engines, the SSJ-NEW and MC-21 mostly need replacements for these engines. Their construction also calls for other foreign components.
Previous manufacturing of the SSJ-100 used SaM146 engines with French-made parts. Russia is working on a replacement, the PD-8 engine. Probably as part of the aircraft’s certification process, the first test flight with these engines took place on March 17, 2025.
Certifications could last many months. Manturov says they could be finished by the end of 2025.
Though Manturov did not specifically confirm this schedule, the revised program projects SSJ-NEW production for 2026.
Initially approved globally with American Pratt & Whitney PW1000G engines, the MC-21 aircraft was originally meant to feature a Russian PD-14 engine variant. Now this engine is the only choice after 2022.
The current program states that serial manufacturing of the MC-21 was set for 2025; however, in January it was postponed to 2026.
Apart from the two flagship Russian aircraft, SSJ-NEW, and the MC-21, the initiative includes the mid-range Tu-214, the long-haul Il-96-400, and other regional aircraft projects.
Designed during the Soviet era, the Il-96-300 and Tu-214 had antiquated design features, including the need for a flight engineer on the crew. Still, their manufacturing is delayed because of manufacturing difficulties and foreign component involvement in their designs.
Given that aircraft fleets still consist of Airbus A330s and Boeing 777s, the situation with long-haul aircraft in Russia is less crucial. The airline Rossiya started flying rebuilt vintage Boeing 747s in March.
The Tu-214 is a popular type of mid-range aircraft, also known as the “workhorse” of global aviation.
Although there is a considerable demand for these aircraft, they already account for a sizable share of the fleets of major Russian carriers. Passenger transportation will not be immediately impacted by production delays because they are still in ample supply.
Problems involving regional and local aviation are far more serious.
Maintaining transit connectivity in many distant areas depends on the availability of small turboprop planes. Usually more robust, these aircraft may land on badly maintained airstrips in remote locations.
Older Soviet-built An-24 and An-26 aircraft still are plentiful in Russia’s regional aircraft fleet.
In February, “Aviation Transport Review,” citing Rosaviatsiya, wrote that 11 Russian airlines were still operating 26 An-26-100 aircraft and 13 cargo An-26s.
A division of Rosaviatsiya, the State Research Institute of Civil Aviation, asked for certification work in early March to prolong the An-26’s service life from 50 to 60 years. They would be grounded in the absence of this extension.
Russia is working on new regional aircraft and resurrecting Soviet aviation concepts, including the Il-114-300.
The Soviet era saw the development of the Il-114, originally intended to replace the An-24. Manufacturing took place at the Tashkent Aviation Plant. Russia is currently developing a modified variant with new engines: the Il-114-300. However, in 2022, Russia decided to delay its manufacturing from 2023 to 2026.
New initiatives call for the Russian-Belarusian LMS-192 “Osvey” and the TVRS-44 “Ladoga.”
According to Russian media, the current government program schedules “Osvey” for 2027, but does not project “Ladoga” to begin production before 2028.
At last, based on “Kommersant,” “design difficulties” have caused the development of the last aircraft in the government program, the LMS-901 “Baikal,” to stall instead of replacing the outdated An-2 biplane.
Resolving these issues will take roughly five years, according to the publication. Russia is thinking about a re-engined An-2 as a stopgap substitute, originally flown in 1947.
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