Boeing, the American company, is reportedly thinking of a gradual reentry into the Russian market, which it voluntarily abandoned in 2022, according to certain reports. Is this scenario feasible? If this is the case, what will be the impact on Russia’s domestic program to replace foreign airliners?
This information is sourced from the widely read Telegram channel SHOT, which informed its subscribers of a two-step strategy for the return of American airliners to Russia.
The resumption of component supplies to maintain American passenger planes presently in operation in Russia could serve as the beginning of Boeing’s comeback, as per SHOT. Furthermore, the company may authorize the resale of used aircraft from foreign airlines to Russian carriers.
The subsequent phase could potentially see the official return of new aircraft to Russia. The narrow-body Boeing 737, which is widely used by the Russian airlines, and the wide-body Boeing 777 are the models that would likely be of the most interest to Russian airlines.
Boeing may also regain access to Russian titanium, which is essential for the fabrication of critical aircraft components, in addition to reentering the Russian market. At the same time, Airbus would be unable to participate in such an agreement, as the European Union is still dedicated to intensifying sanctions and engaging in additional conflict with Moscow.
Is it feasible for all of this to happen? Indeed, it is highly probable.
The Boeing-Airbus duopoly had a nearly complete monopoly on the airways of Russia prior to the implementation of stringent sectoral sanctions in 2022. Russia encountered substantial obstacles that were incapable of being resolved through straightforward solutions when these organizations discontinued the sale of new aircraft and the maintenance of those that had already been delivered.
Since 2014, when the United States and the European Union implemented their initial restrictions, there have been ongoing efforts to circumvent Western sanctions on the production of the Sukhoi Superjet and the MC-21 medium-haul aircraft.
Nevertheless, these aircraft, which are highly promising, have not yet been entirely localized, even in 2025. What is the issue? Significant reliance on foreign components.
The Superjet was initially manufactured with at least 75% foreign components, while the MC-21 depended on foreign components for more than 50% of its construction.
In essence, the Russian regional aircraft was a “Lego set” composed of foreign components. The MC-21 was engineered with two engine options: American and Russian, which mitigated its dependence on the West. Nevertheless, the aircraft’s “black wings” were initially built from foreign composites. The transition to domestic alternatives resulted in an increase in weight and necessitated the development of a shortened version of the aircraft.
Consequently, the completely localized Superjet and MC-21 continue to experience production delays. In the interim, Russia has adopted aircraft from the Soviet era, including the Tu-214 and Il-96.
The Tu-214 is still unable to compete with the MC-21 due to its lack of modern, efficient serial production. Additionally, it appears that the Il-96 is not intended for large-scale production.
In the end, Russian airlines are obligated to continue operating their current Western aircraft, even though Boeing and Airbus have declined to provide maintenance services. Maintenance options were limited to cannibalization, which involved repurposing components from one aircraft to maintain functionality in another and sending aircraft to Iran, where sanctioned Western components are procured through illicit markets.
This situation is both dangerous and unsustainable.
Dmitry Belokon, Senior Vice President of UTair Airlines, publicly acknowledged the necessity of purchasing used Western aircraft in May 2024. He said, “We comprehend that ceasing domestic aircraft production is not an option.” Nevertheless, we are obligated to import second-hand aircraft until we can acquire our own, as Iran does. Otherwise, it will be virtually impossible to achieve our aviation objectives for 2030.
In 2011, President Dmitry Medvedev issued a severe critique of Russian-made aircraft. He expressed his dissatisfaction with the Tu-214, describing it as “unreliable and unstable.” Citing safety concerns, he ordered the accelerated phase-out of the aircraft following a Tu-134 disaster.
The Russian government may be compelled to reevaluate its stance and resume purchasing Western jets as the sole viable alternative if Russia continues to operate “cannibalized” aircraft in the event of a significant accident.
Boeing could potentially acquire a competitive edge over Airbus in the Russian market as a result of Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. election.
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