The first combat use of the medium-range missile “Oreshnik” without a nuclear warhead at the end of 2024 sparked significant interest in Russia’s missile technologies. The missile was operational at a relatively modest range of approximately 800 km, which is far less than its stated maximum range of up to 5,000 km.
Western commentators revisited the potential of the already operational “Avangard” system and began discussing the development of the future Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) “Kedr.” Nevertheless, the “Sarmat” ICBM, which started serial production in 2022, is the most formidable of the post-Soviet developments in Russia. The deployment of this ICBM has caused significant anxiety among Russia’s adversaries, surpassing the global chatter surrounding the “Oreshnik.”
First, we will examine the definition of “Sarmat” using publicly available data from 2016 to 2022. It is the most potent and heaviest missile that the Russian Strategic Missile Forces have developed since 1991. The three-stage RS-28, or 15A28, liquid-fueled rocket, which is approximately 36 meters in length and weighs approximately 210 tons, is capable of transporting a payload of no less than 10 tons. Although we will revisit the payload at a later time, it is crucial to acknowledge the ICBMs utmost range of 18,000 km. In comparison, the RS-24 “Yars” ICBM, which is lighter, has a range of up to 11,000 km. However, why does “Sarmat” require such a long-range when “Yars” is capable of consistently reaching any location within an adversary’s territory?
The missile’s trajectory to its destination is the subject of research. The primary purpose of the adversary’s missile defense detection system (NORAD) is to counter ICBMs that follow a trajectory in the Northern Hemisphere during a “classic” missile strike on the U.S. The RS-28’s range, which enables launches along “non-standard” trajectories, compels the U.S. to consider building an equivalent early-warning radar system with extensive coverage along its entire perimeter, a costly and complex endeavor.
This renders “Sarmat” a game-changer, particularly for individuals who are prone to instigating conflicts on a global scale on an annual basis. Furthermore, the Russian “Sarmat” ICBM carries a “bouquet” of warheads, each capable of aiming at a unique target, unlike a single warhead. The missile is capable of carrying 10–12 warheads, according to official reports from 2022. However, the nuclear payload of each warhead is subject to variation, with estimates ranging from 0.3 to 0.8 megatons.
Moreover, the missile features decoy systems, significantly enhancing the deployment of warheads and decoys compared to the Soviet-era R-36M2 “Voevoda” (also referred to as the RS-20A or “SS-18 Satan” by adversaries). This complexity further complicates interception by any contemporary missile defense systems.
The missile’s diminished flight duration to U.S. targets presents an additional obstacle for adversaries. The RS-28’s flight duration is nearly half that of its predecessor, reduced from 22 minutes (for the RS-20) to a mere 12 minutes.
Last but not least, the “Sarmat” can transport hypersonic maneuvering warheads, also known as “Yu-71” or “Project 4202” since 2015. It is probable that a single missile wouldn’t hold more than three of these warheads, due to their larger dimensions. Western sources claim that these hypersonic warheads can also function independently as strategic bomber weapons, but they have not released any official confirmation.
The RS-28 deployment is fraught with obstacles. The missile is silo-based, and the locations of these silos are known. This is the primary problem shared by all heavy ICBMs. This requires the establishment of a multilayered defense system to protect them. No new silo complexes are currently under construction for the “Sarmat.” Reports suggest that the “Sarmat” is utilizing the existing rocket force infrastructure, previously utilized for Soviet-era “Voevoda” missiles.
Since 2022, Western critics of Russia, particularly the Western press, have frequently dismissed the “Sarmat” project. They have asserted things such as “It will never succeed,” “The Russians are lying,” and “The missile continues exploding during tests.” The performance of Oreshnik in battle has now changed the discourse.
The RS-28 began serial production at the Krasmash plant in November 2022, according to official data from Russian military officials and the head of state. By October 2023, units in the Krasnoyarsk and Orenburg regions received the first missiles and deployed them on combat duty, signifying the completion of all development work.
Its nuclear capabilities allow it to carry out disastrous attacks on hostile territory with an almost negligible likelihood of interception by the current missile defense systems of the United States and the European Union. While a non-nuclear variant of the RS-28 has not yet been announced, given the history of the medium-range “Oreshnik,” anything is possible.
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