Western aircraft manufacturers withdrew from the Russian market in 2022, which presented a unique chance for domestic producers to increase production and potentially enter foreign markets. A comprehensive program was implemented by Russia on June 27, 2022, with the objective of boosting its aviation sector by 2030. The objective of this ambitious initiative is to produce over 1,000 aircraft by 2030, with a target of delivering 14 aircraft in 2022, 25 in 2023, and a total of 69 passenger aircraft by the end of 2024.
Nevertheless, these projections were accompanied by skepticism from the beginning. It was immediately apparent to those who were familiar with the complexities of major aviation programs that such objectives were exceedingly optimistic. The reengining of the Sukhoi Superjet 100 (SSJ-100) with Russian PD-8 engines was already behind schedule. Developing a new engine within a limited timeframe presents substantial obstacles for any nation, including Russia. Additionally, the SSJ-100 requires a variety of domestic systems and avionics, which raises concerns regarding the feasibility of these ambitious commitments.
Similarly, the Tu-214 presents a number of obstacles. The Kazan Aviation Plant (KAZ) is in the process of preparing for the mass production of this airliner. Nevertheless, the establishment of production facilities, the modernization of equipment, and the recruitment of competent personnel are monumental tasks that will require years to complete. The first import-substituted Tu-214 only completed its test flight on November 20, 2024, despite ongoing efforts.
The Tu-214’s future is a topic of concern as the MC-21 enters the market. Aeroflot has reevaluated its plans for the Tu-214 in order to prioritize the MC-21. Aeroflot’s decision is indicative of production delays and a transition to more recent models, as the company was originally scheduled to acquire 40 Tu-214s by 2030 under a previous agreement.
The MC-21 initiative is not without its challenges. The aircraft, which was introduced in 2006 and made its first flight in 2017, has not yet entered mass production, despite its ambitious objectives and aggressive marketing. Progress is delayed by difficulties such as certification challenges, import substitution requirements, and delivery delays. Despite the intended delivery of 210 aircraft by 2030, this objective appears excessively optimistic in light of the current situation. In order to provide context, Airbus manufactures up to 50 aircraft per month during this time.
The situation has been further complicated by the instability of management. As a result of their unsatisfactory performance, senior executives such as Andrey Boginsky of PJSC “Yakovlev” and Vyacheslav Bogdashev of “Tupolev” were terminated.
The Il-114 program is also confronted with substantial obstacles as a result of the TV7-117ST engine, which has been in development since the 1990s. The Il-114 is essential because it replaces the antiquated Soviet-era An-24/26 aircraft, which are becoming increasingly unreliable. This type of aircraft is essential for the preservation of connectivity between the northern regions and mainland Russia.
Projects such as the TVRS-44 appear to be futile at this time, as the aircraft has not yet completed its first flight.
A total of 108 aircraft were anticipated to be operational by the end of 2024, as per the aviation development program’s projections. Nevertheless, bulk production has not yet occurred; only a small number of SSJ-100s have been completed, in addition to the first flights of the Il-96-400 and newer Tu-214.
However, there are indications of progress, despite these obstacles. The establishment of large production facilities for new aircraft models is taking place incrementally. In recent years, it has become evident that the continuation of sanctions requires the production of domestic aircraft; without it, there would be no operational aircraft.
Over 20 Superjet 100s are reportedly in various phases of readiness at PJSC “Yakovlev” in Komsomolsk-on-Amur, while a comparable number of MC-21s are at Irkutsk Aviation Plant. Once the flight tests and certification processes for domestic systems have been finalized, serial production and final assembly will commence.
The Ministry of Industry and Trade has announced that the certification process for the PD-8 engine as part of the import-substituted SSJ-100 is expected to commence in 2025 and be completed by the end of the year. At present, certification flight testing is being conducted with Franco-Russian SaM146 engines. The MC-21’s testing is also advancing; one partially import-substituted aircraft is nearly prepared for its inaugural flight while testing for a wholly Russian model is expected to commence in spring 2025.
According to UAC, the objective of manufacturing aircraft airframes “in advance” is to accelerate production after certification is completed. At present, efforts are being made to replace approximately 80 systems with domestic alternatives in order to expedite the market entry of import-substituted airliners.
In anticipation of 2025, there is optimism that certain assurances will be realized as Russia endeavors to establish its own aviation capabilities in the face of persistent international isolation.
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