The Russian authorities expect that the first deliveries of the domestic MC-21 aircraft to the airline may begin as early as 2025. This was stated by Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin, speaking at the Transport of Russia forum. “In the coming year, we expect the completion of certification of the flagship MC-21 and the start of its deliveries to airlines,” the head of the Cabinet said.
Also, it is estimated that, in the next three to four years, the Russian aviation industry will achieve sustained serial production of multiple aircraft types simultaneously. It is currently seeking to expand its market. The current geopolitical situation will be considered when collaborating with countries that are interested in acquiring modern passenger aircraft. The concentration will be on partners with whom stable economic and political relations have been established.
The evaluation of market demand for Russian aircraft, such as the MC-21, Tu-214, and SJ-100, should consider the characteristics of counterparts and the requirements of potential consumers. Simultaneously, the anticipated volumes of passenger traffic in numerous global regions encourage the possibility of exporting Russian civil aircraft.
One of the critical components of the successful commercialization of the prospective Russian airliner, the MC-21, should be the export component in its serial production. The aircraft’s cost will not be recouped if we exclusively rely on the domestic market. Fyodor Borisov, the principal expert of the Institute of Transport Economics and Transport Policy at the National Research University Higher School of Economics, made this statement during the open studio of FederalPress during the Russian Transport Week.
The expert said, “Export for the aviation industry should always be an imperative. Orientation only on the domestic market is wrong, as it is a very complex, very expensive product. It is not necessary to focus only on the domestic market because in this case, investments will not pay off.”
In the global passenger air transport market, there is an increasing demand for narrow-body airliners with a range of up to 6,000 kilometers. The modernization of airline fleets and the expanding economy of Asia are both contributing to an increase in air travel. In its 2024 annual report on the aviation industry, Airbus, the world’s largest aircraft manufacturer, anticipated that the global passenger aircraft fleet would reach nearly 42,000 aircraft in the next two decades, a more than double from 2018.
Fyodor Borisov observes that the MC-21 has a substantial sales market in this regard. He stated that deliveries will not be made to hostile nations; however, there is an adequate number of countries that do not endorse the global West and require new aircraft. The MC-21 should be offered for export to states that are prepared to collaborate with Russian manufacturers.
Nevertheless, the MS-21 export may be discontinued due to the insufficient production rates of the aircraft at the Irkutsk Aircraft Plant. At present, the Irkut plant is in the process of increasing its production capacity by importing modern processing equipment, constructing new workshops, and increasing its production capacity. The plant will be capable of producing 36 MC-21-310 airliners annually upon the end of the current stage of modernization. This volume of production is insufficient, and it is impossible to discuss the start of export deliveries, even if there are potential customers, given that Russian civil aviation will be decommissioning foreign aircraft within the next decade.
In 2027, the Comprehensive Programme for the Development of the Russian Aviation Industry until 31 December 2030 stipulates the production of 50 MC-21 aircraft. Beginning in 2028, the production rate must be increased to 72 aircraft annually. It is evident that additional production capacity expansion is necessary to guarantee these volumes. They should be comparable to the ones that the Irkut plant will have after the modernization process.
Therefore, in order to address the ambitious objective of replacing all Boeing and Airbus medium-range aircraft in Russian airlines with the MC-21 within a decade, it is necessary to construct a new aircraft plant or modernize an existing one that is either underutilized or idle, and to establish serial production of the airliner at that location. Furthermore, it is imperative to substantially increase the production of PD-14 engines in Perm, necessitating the expansion of production capacity.
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