Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin visited Tatarstan in June 2023 to assess whether to start serial manufacturing of the Tu-214. Resuming commercial Tu-214s was suggested by Tatarstan President Rustam Minnikhanov back in the spring of 2022. Rostec CEO Sergei Chemezov had said that the Tu-214 is simply an “additional precaution before the beginning of large-scale serial manufacturing” of the MC-21. Though the beginning of delivery to airlines is being delayed—previously 2024, now 2025—there is still no import-substituting MS-21. For a totally new kind of aircraft and the same engine, this is also a somewhat audacious projection.
The language of Russian Aviation Industry officials over the Tu-214 progressively shifted in view of Western sanctions. Originally they intended to manufacture ten aircraft a year, today it is twenty. First, there was a discussion of 70 Tu’s by 2030; on June 16, UAC CEO Yuri Slyusar projected demand at about 100 aircraft.
There is recognition that the Tu-214 and MS-21 are not rivals in terms of transport capabilities, as they each serve a distinct market segment. The Tu-214 is more comparable to the Boeing 757-200, which is no longer in production, and competes in a similar niche to the Airbus A321LR and XLR. The MS-21 competes with the Boeing 737 MAX series and the Airbus A320neo family, including the A321neo. The A321XLR aims to fill the market niche previously occupied by the Boeing 757, which is also where the Tu-214 fits. The Tu-214 does have potential for modernization, though the extent of this potential would depend on various technological and economic factors.
In today’s aviation market, there’s a growing demand for narrow-body, single-aisle aircraft capable of long-range flights. This trend is partly driven by declining purchasing power and the need for versatile aircraft that can partially fill the role of wide-body planes. Airbus has capitalized on this demand with their A321XLR, securing over 300 firm orders for this model which boasts an impressive range of 8,300 kilometers.
The Tu-214, especially if modernized with an extended flight range, could potentially tap into this market niche. As the global geopolitical landscape shifts, with new spheres of influence emerging and political alliances being reshaped, there may be opportunities to supply these ‘lightweight’ long-range aircraft to international partners. This could be particularly relevant given that China, a major player in the aviation industry, currently lacks a comparable offering in this segment.
The modernized Tu-214 could thus not only serve domestic needs but also perform well in foreign markets, offering an alternative to Western-made aircraft for countries seeking to diversify their aviation fleets or align with new political and economic partnerships.
When examining the cost factor of Russian-made aircraft, an intriguing situation emerges. According to the “Domestic Aircraft Preferential Leasing Project” schedule, approved by a government order in January 2023, both the Tu-214 and MS-21 are priced similarly for Aeroflot, ranging between 3.144 and 3.285 billion rubles (approximately $38 million). This pricing parity is surprising, given that the Tu-214 is widely considered an older design, while the MS-21 is touted as a cutting-edge aircraft.
Rostek CEO Chemezov has explained that the MS-21’s pricing for Russian carriers is intentionally set below market value to ease the financial burden on airlines. For context, in late 2021, United Aircraft Corporation CEO Yury Slyusar quoted the MS-21’s catalog price at $96.1 million. While no official catalog price has been stated for the Tu-214, former Kazan Aircraft Production Association general director Vasil Kayumov suggested that around 2010, the aircraft could be offered to airlines for approximately $40 million with minimal markup. Accounting for typical catalog pricing being 40-50% higher than actual prices, this would put Tu-214’s estimated catalog price in the $70-80 million range.
Interestingly, some airlines like UVT Aero are opting for the Tu-214 despite the availability of the more modern MS-21. An airline executive highlighted a crucial factor in this decision: available seat kilometers, a key efficiency metric calculated by multiplying the number of available seats by the distance traveled. Based on published specifications, the Tu-214 outperforms the MS-21 in this metric by a factor of 1.7, potentially offering more revenue generation per flight.
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